Arecent shift in U.S. policy has sparked intense debate, as President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to deploy American long-range missiles, including the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), against targets inside Russia.
Michael C. Desch, Packey J. Dee Professor of International Relations, University of Notre Dame
I think President Biden’s decision to sanction Ukrainian use of U.S. weapons, capable of hitting targets deep in old Russia, is both dangerous and pointless.
It is dangerous because I believe that to use deep strike systems like ATACMS may require direct U.S./NATO involvement, primarily in targeting.
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I doubt it will lead to WWIII, but it will further escalate a bloody and dangerous war that should have never happened, and should have been shut down long ago. It likely has already escalated the scope of the conflict—the Houthis, for example, seem to have acquired some advanced weaponry that likely came from Russia.
Robert Romanchuk, Ukrainian Studies Fund Research Fellow, Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute
Americans may not have noticed—nor, shockingly, have many Europeans—that World War III has already begun. On one side are Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. The Russian war in Ukraine is being fought with Chinese support for Russian industry, Iranian drones, and North Korean ammunition and missiles, which kill Ukrainian civilians every night, and now North Korean troops.
Richard K. Betts, International Relations Scholar, U.S. Foreign Policy. Author of ‘American Force’
At this point, the risk of major Russian escalation in response to ATACMS is low since Putin now has a natural incentive to wait a couple of months until Trump takes office and reverses U.S. policy on Ukraine.
Professor Lubomyr Luciuk, Department of Political Science and Economics, Ukrainian History, Royal Military College of Canada
Providing Ukraine with all the weapons needed to defeat the Russians will de-escalate this conflict and prevent a world war. Not doing so will yield the field to “powers and principalities” seeking to undermine the rules-based international order and exacerbate worldwide geopolitical instability. Ensuring Ukraine’s victory is the antidote to Russia’s predatory and rapacious behavior.
Dani Belo, PhD, Security and International Relations Director, Global Policy Horizons Research Lab
Ukraine’s ability to now strike into Russian territory indeed has the potential to escalate the war with Russia. However, the election of Donald Trump will likely dampen the escalation.
There is currently an anticipation that Donald Trump’s administration may cut military hardware supplies to Ukraine and put political pressure on Kyiv to end the conflict. This means Ukraine does not have a strong incentive to escalate now, only to lose its fighting ability within a few months.
From Russia’s perspective, there is also currently no incentive for escalation. Moscow believes that Trump’s administration will attempt to end the war quickly, so the Kremlin is likely to adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach until the new presidential administration enters the white house without substantial escalation. This means any escalation is likely to be restrained.
Source: Newsweek
