China’s rapidly aging population will be an obstacle to its economic growth, which will be surpassed by the U.S. in the next several years, according to a top demographer.
Fu-Xian Yi, a specialist in reproductive science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and an expert on China’s demographics, pointed out that the share of the Chinese population that’s over 65 had jumped to 15.4% in 2023 from 7% in 1998.
“Historically, no country has managed to achieve 4% growth in the subsequent 12 years after the elderly made up 15% of the population,” he wrote Wednesday in Project Syndicate. “The average growth rate for high-income countries during this period is just 1.8%.”
While the U.S. remains the world’s largest economy, its growth rate has lagged China’s, even as the No. 2 economy has slowed sharply in recent years. Last year, China’s GDP expanded by 5.2%, compared to 2.5% for the U.S.
But Yi sees the tables turning by the next decade and drew a parallel between China’s aging population and how similar demographic trajectories cooled off the Japanese and German economies.
“Based on these historical trends, China’s growth rate is likely to slow to 3% by 2028 and fall below that of the U.S. from 2031 to 2035,” he predicted. Source: Fortune
