WASHINGTON: In a shift from tit-for-tat tariffs and strong-arm tactics to tech restrictions and investment curbs, US policy towards China has become more targeted under President Joe Biden – though still hardline.
Despite differences between Democrats and Republicans, analysts expect Washington’s approach to Beijing will only become tougher, whether Biden or former president Donald Trump wins another White House term.
“I think the direction of pressure in Washington is absolutely in one direction, which is more hawkishness,” said Joshua Meltzer, senior fellow at Brookings Institution.
Already, Biden has largely maintained Trump-era tariffs, rolled out export control restrictions to curtail Beijing’s ability to buy and make certain high-end chips, and unveiled an order to curb outbound investments to
China.
Officials are also seeking to boost self-reliance in key areas including clean energy supply chains, while further action on data flows is expected.
Meltzer told AFP: “There is currently congressional pressure to do more.”
DIFFERENT POLICIES
But experts agree that a second Biden or Trump administration would diverge on policies.
The Biden administration does not expect to “reach a deal with China, where they’re going to make these major reforms and changes”, Meltzer said.
“It’s really about, how do you adjust to the reality of China? How do you bring allies along?”
There is a “notion of derisking from a security perspective as well”, he added.
But the Trump administration favoured using US leverage to broker a deal changing China’s behavior, Meltzer said, referring to the Phase One trade agreement culminating from a truce in the escalating tariffs war.
Should Trump be elected, some expect to see higher tariffs targeting China, given his proposal of more than 60 per cent levies on Chinese
goods.
The move could draw Chinese retaliation, stalling trade between the world’s top two economies.
“I think we’d see a lot more return to tariffs, I think we’d also see a lot less cooperation with allies,” Meltzer said. “The US would be more isolated on some of these issues.”
Biden has shown willingness to maintain existing measures on China while being narrow and focused in future moves, and this is unlikely to change, Greer added.
A second Biden administration could also seek cooperation with China on issues like climate and have more room to engage – given reduced pressure to appear tough on Beijing to deflect criticism from Trump, analysts believe.
Source: AFP
