Economists lowered the growth outlook for Singapore and Hong Kong in the second half of this year, on increased uncertainties from US President Donald Trump imposing higher tariffs on China’s exports, according to the median of a Bloomberg survey.
Singapore’s growth is likely to slow to 1.3% in the third quarter, and to 1.6% in the fourth quarter, the survey showed. In comparison, growth is estimated at 4.1% in the first quarter and 3.9% in the second quarter — raised from 3.5% for each period from the December survey. The annual outlook stayed the same at 2.6%, though analysts are warning of risks.
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“The full-year outlook faces considerable downside risks, especially from rising geopolitical tensions due to higher tariffs, and elevated trade policy uncertainty under Trump 2.0,” said Han Teng Chua, a senior economist at DBS Bank.
Singapore and Hong Kong are among the most exposed to China’s economy via commodity and trade links.
Hong Kong’s growth outlook was cut by economists to 2.6% from 3.2% for the third quarter, and to 2.4% from 3.1% for the fourth quarter, according to the survey. Meanwhile, forecasts were raised by almost 0.5 percentage point to 1.7% for the first quarter, and 1.8% for the second quarter.
Source: Bloomberg
