GENEVA, April 5 (Xinhua) — Global trade growth in 2023 will slow to 1.7 percent, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in its annual trade statistics and outlook report,
published on Wednesday.
The volume of world merchandise trade has been weighed down by the effects of the conflict in Ukraine, high inflation, tighter monetary policy and financial market uncertainty, the report said.
However, the forecast for trade growth in 2023 is up from the previous estimate of 1.0 percent from last October.
China’s adjustment of its COVID-19 measures is a “key factor” in this increase, the report said. The reopening of China is expected to boost international trade, the report said.
Dragged down by a sharp slump in the fourth quarter, world trade volume grew by 2.7 percent, “a smaller-than-expected increase”.
According to WTO economists, the global GDP at market exchange rates will grow by 2.4 percent in 2023.
Meanwhile, projections for trade and GDP growth in 2023 are below the averages for the past 12 years, of 2.6 percent and 2.7 percent respectively.
“The lingering effects of COVID-19 and the rising geopolitical tensions were the main factors impacting trade and output in 2022, and this is likely to be the case in 2023 as well,” said Ralph Ossa, WTO Chief Economist.
Interest rate hikes in advanced economies have also revealed weaknesses in banking systems that could lead to wider financial instability if left unchecked, he said.
“Governments and regulators need to be alert to these and other financial risks in the coming months,” he added.
Source: Xinhua
