The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold off cutting rates until the fourth-quarter of next year, according to Goldman Sachs economists who cited stronger-than-expected economic growth that is helping forestall a recession.
So far this year, the U.S. economy has defied recession fears and “made substantial progress toward a soft landing,” Goldman’s David Mericle and the firm’s economics team said in a note dated on Sunday.
Goldman now expects a “historically average” 15% chance of recession over the next 12 months, compared to the consensus probability of 48%, the firm said.
The firm expects gross domestic product to grow 2.1% in 2024.
