JPMorgan Chase & Co now sees a 35% chance that the US economy tips into a recession by the end of this year, up from 25% as of the start of last month.
US news “hints at a sharper-than-expected weakening in labour demand and early signs of labour shedding,” JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. The team kept the odds of a recession by the second half of 2025 at
45%.
“This modest increase in our assessment of recession risk contrasts with a more substantial reassessment we are making to the interest rate outlook,” Kasman and his colleagues wrote. JPMorgan now sees just a 30% chance of the Federal Reserve and its peers keeping interest rates “high-for-long,” compared with a 50-50 assessment as recently as two months back.
