HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s GDP is forecast to hit US$450 billion in 2024, placing it 34th globally, according to the UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

With an average annual growth rate of 5.8 per cent over the next five years, Việt Nam’s GDP is expected to surpass Singapore’s, reaching $676 billion by 2029.

By 2039, Việt Nam’s GDP could rise to $1.41 trillion, ranking 25th worldwide and becoming Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy, following Indonesia and the Philippines. This significant milestone underscores Việt Nam’s resilience amid global challenges.

CEBR projects Việt Nam will maintain strong growth compared to regional peers such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. While global GDP is expected to double from $110 trillion in 2024 to $221 trillion by 2039, Việt Nam is anticipated to outpace many of its ASEAN neighbours in economic expansion.

In terms of GDP per capita, Việt Nam is set to cross the upper-middle-income threshold in 2024 with a projected per capita GDP of $4,469. By 2025, this figure is expected to rise to $4,783, officially classifying Việt Nam as an upper-middle-income country.

Although Việt Nam’s per capita GDP lags behind Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, it is forecasted to climb to fourth place among ASEAN-6 nations by 2026, overtaking Indonesia and the Philippines, with a per capita GDP of $6,140, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

To maintain its upward trajectory, Việt Nam must focus on improving labour productivity, investing in education, and advancing technology. These efforts are essential to narrowing the income gap with neighbouring countries and solidifying its position as a regional economic leader.

Source: VNS

Developers should focus on strategies to reduce risks and drain unsold units priced at 1-3 million baht in the condo market, which faces challenges from weakened purchasing power and stricter lending conditions, threatening market stability.

Nattha Kahapana, managing director at property consultant Knight Frank Thailand, said the condo market is under pressure due to both declining purchasing power and stricter lending criteria from financial institutions.

“Although interest rates have decreased by 0.25%, they remain relatively unchanged overall, and the market is expected to continue its slowdown,” he said.

The condo market in the fourth quarter of 2024 remains subdued, in line with the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) survey that projected a decline in housing loan demand in the next three months.

In 2025, personal incomes may gradually recover, potentially increasing housing loan demand, but not to normal levels. This reflects continued weak home loan growth and financial institutions’ cautious lending practices based on borrowers’ credit risk.

“The 1 to 3-million-baht condo market will be hit hardest by weaker purchasing power and stricter lending criteria. Developers must address these challenges and find ways to reduce risks in clearing remaining units,” he said.

Meanwhile, new projects are launching at higher prices due to rising land costs, which creates a mismatch with the income levels of potential buyers, making affordability a key issue despite demand.

For projects with unsold inventory, developers may need to adopt sales- boosting strategies, such as flexible payment terms, low-interest rates or down-payment programmes with minimal upfront costs to motivate prospective buyers.

Source: Bangkok Post

China’s urban rental market has plummeted to its lowest point in four years, exposing deep-rooted issues in the world’s second-largest economy.

Average rents in 100 major Chinese cities dropped to 2,636 yuan ($361) per 100 square meters in November 2024. This decline signifies a notable downturn in the real estate sector.

This decline stems from a perfect storm of factors. An oversupply of housing units floods the market, with cities like Qidong in Jiangsu province grappling with over 40,000 units from a single developer.

The economic slowdown has weakened the job market, particularly affecting young people and reducing rental demand. Investors who bought properties as investments now face a challenging market.

Many resort to renting out units at low rates to recoup costs, further driving down prices. Property values have also plummeted, with some units selling for half their original price.

For instance, properties once priced at 400,000 yuan ($54,801) now sell for just 200,000 yuan ($27,401). The government has implemented various measures to stabilize the market.

These include a 300 billion yuan ($41.1 billion) program to support purchases of unsold housing stock and policies promoting equal rights for renters and homeowners.

However, the effectiveness of these interventions remains limited.

Source: Nikkei Asia