Fitch cut its outlook on China’s sovereign credit rating to negative on Wednesday, citing risks to public finances as the economy faces increasing uncertainty in its shift to new growth models.
The outlook downgrade follows a similar move by Moody’s in December and comes as Beijing ratchets up efforts to spur a feeble post-Covid recovery in the world’s second-largest economy with fiscal and monetary support.
“Fitch’s outlook revision reflects the more challenging situation in China’s public finance regarding the double whammy of decelerating growth and more debt,” said Gary Ng, Natixis Asia-Pacific senior economist.
“This does not mean that China will default any time soon, but it is possible to see credit polarization in some LGFVs (local government financing vehicles), especially as provincial governments see weaker fiscal health.”
Fitch expects China’s explicit central and local government debt to rise to 61.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 from 56.1% in 2023 – a clear deterioration from 38.5% in 2019.
A protracted property downturn has weighed heavily on debt-laden local governments as their revenues from land development plunged, rendering debt levels in many cities unsustainable.
At the same time, the rating agency expects China’s general government deficit – which covers infrastructure and other official fiscal activity outside the headline budget – to rise to 7.1% of GDP in 2024 from 5.8% in 2023, the highest since 8.6% in 2020, when Beijing’s strict COVID curbs weighed heavily on the economy.
While it lowered its ratings to negative outlook from “stable”, indicating a downgrade is possible over the medium term, Fitch affirmed China’s issuer default rating at ‘A+’, its third-highest category.
S&P, the other major global rating agency, also rates China A+, the equivalent of Moody’s current A1 rating.
Fitch forecast China’s economic growth would slow to 4.5% in 2024 from 5.2% last year, while the International Monetary Fund expects China’s GDP to grow 4.6% this year.
The ratings warning comes despite tentative signs China’s economy is finding its footing.
Factory output and retail sales topped forecasts in January-February, following better-than-expected exports and consumer inflation indicators.
Those data points have shored up Beijing’s hopes that it can hit what analysts have described as an ambitious GDP growth target of around 5.0% for 2024.
“The outlook revision reflects increasing risks to China’s public finance outlook as the country contends with more uncertain economic prospects amid a transition away from property-reliant growth to what the government views as a more sustainable growth model,” Fitch said. Source: CNBC
តំបន់នេះ នឹងត្រូវបានប្រើប្រាស់ជាចម្បង សម្រាប់បម្រើផលប្រយោជន៍សាធារណៈ របស់ប្រជាជនទីក្រុងបាងកក ហើយលទ្ធផលសិក្សាត្រូវតែរាយការណ៍ ជូននាយករដ្ឋមន្រ្តីឱ្យបានលឿន តាមដែលអាចធ្វើទៅបាន។
ទីភ្នាក់ងារ Fitch បានអះអាងថា “ការត្រួតពិនិត្យ និងការកែសម្រួលឡើងវិញនូវទស្សនវិស័យនេះ បានឆ្លុះបញ្ចាំងឱ្យឃើញពីការកើនឡើងនៃហានិភ័យ ចំពោះទស្សនវិស័យហិរញ្ញវត្ថុសាធារណៈរបស់ប្រទេសចិន”។
យោងតាមប្រភពក្រុមហ៊ុនបានឱ្យដឹងថា ក្រុមហ៊ុន Microsoft គ្រោងនឹងបើកមូលដ្ឋានស្រាវជ្រាវនៅទីក្រុងតូក្យូ ក្នុងគោលបំណងលើកកម្ពស់ការស្រាវជ្រាវលើ វិស័យបច្ចេកវិទ្យា AI និងមនុស្សយន្ត។
លោក Kishida បានបន្ថែមថា ប្រទេសជប៉ុននឹងចាប់ដៃជាមួយសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក ដើម្បីពន្លឿនកំណើនសេដ្ឋកិច្ចពិភពលោក ក្នុងបច្ចេកវិទ្យាសំខាន់ៗ រួមទាំងឧបករណ៍អេឡិចត្រូនិក បច្ចេកវិទ្យា AI កុំព្យូទ័រកង់ទិច និងថាមពលស្អាត ព្រមទាំងពង្រីកការវិនិយោគទៅវិញទៅមក៕ប្រភព:Kyodo៕
“Malaysia has a target to break through the middle-income trap and become a high-income economy by the end of the decade, and there’s no reason why it cannot do that,” he added. According to the Malaysian Investment Development Authority, Malaysia posted a record-high FDI of RM208.6 billion in 2021, followed by RM163.3 billion in 2022 and RM125.7 billion in 2023.
លោកលី ជេម្យុង (Lee Jae-myung) ប្រធានគណបក្សប្រជាធិបតេយ្យ (DP) ដែលបានដឹកនាំយុទ្ធនាការ ឃោសនាបោះឆ្នោតតតាំងនឹងលោក Yoon បានមានប្រសាសន៍ឱ្យដឹងថា ឥឡូវនេះ អាទិភាពកំពូលរបស់យើង គឺស្ដារសេដ្ឋកិច្ចឲ្យស្ទុះងើបឡើងវិញ។
